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Forex Software Article Of The Month
Choosing a Trading System That Actually Works
I believe a good trading system should be considered for inclusion in one's portfolio in order to potentially enjoy superior returns. Finding a good trading system, however, can be a very difficult process. I believe a good trading system should be considered for inclusion in one's portfolio in order to potentially enjoy superior returns. Finding a good trading system, however, can be a very difficult process. So it becomes necessary to have a way of distinguishing good systems from the rest. Fortunately, there is a way to do this by using a demanding set of criteria that I believe must be met in order for you to consider using the system.
Futures trading is not appropriate for everyone. There is a substantial risk of loss associated with trading futures. Losses can and will occur. No system or methodology has ever been developed that can guarantee profits or ensure freedom from losses. No representation or implication is being made that using the Instant Profits methodology or system will generate profits or ensure freedom from losses.
The purpose of this report is to define the criteria that I believe will enable you to identify the good systems out there from all the rest.
Listed below are the key elements of the criteria set you should use in evaluating a trading system. A good trading system will meet the requirements of each key element whereas many systems will only meet some requirements. For example, a trading system may be advertised as having 80% winning trades which sounds pretty good. However, that same system's losing trades may be 5 times higher than the average winning trade, making the system a net loser.
Mechanical System
The trading system must be 100% mechanical without any human input or overrides. It must also not be tweaked or adjusted as time goes on to fit current data. Also, the system algorithms or rules must not be curve-fitting or tailored to short term, non-repetitive patterns of past data that eliminate otherwise losing trades. A good way to screen for curve-fitting is to look for consistently good results over a minimum of 5 years of past data that meet all of the other criteria outlined in this report as well.
Liquid Markets
The trading system should be aimed at liquid markets where sufficient daily volume exists to easily and consistently execute orders as intended by the system with a minimum of slippage. For example, the S&P 500 Index Futures Market is highly liquid, whereas the Orange Juice Futures Market is far less liquid.
Market Direction Independence
A good trading system will not be dependent on a bull market for its success. It should have the potential to generate successful trading performance in all market conditions; bull, bear, and sideways trading range.
Hypothetical Performance Results
The primary way of evaluating a trading system is based on its historical back tested performance ("hypothetical performance"). But the performance record must include real world trading commission and slippage assumptions. Commission and slippage can cause an otherwise winning performance to actually be a net loser. Beware of any futures trading system performance data where commission and slippage assumptions are not included or are understated.
Maximum Drawdown
An inherent characteristic of investing in general and in trading systems in particular is the maximum drawdown in account value from the most recent peak. This is a very important factor in assessing the risk associated with any system. There are two aspects to consider; the dollar amount of the drawdown as a percentage of the total account value (should not exceed the average annual return) and the duration of the drawdown until a new peak level in equity is realized (should not exceed 6 months). Some trading systems hype great profits over the past several years, but don't disclose drawdowns that sometimes exceed the initial capital invested and last for a year or more. Before selecting a trading system, you must be able to quantify the drawdown risk and find it suitable, both financially and emotionally.
Beginning Account Size
The maximum past drawdown (over a minimum five year period) plus the margin required for one contract is the absolute minimum account size required to trade a system. And to be conservative, it is prudent to add a buffer since the maximum drawdown for any trading system is always in the future.
Annual Returns
Annual returns are measured as net profit after commissions and slippage, divided by the beginning account size which gives you annual percent return on beginning account size. Two things are important here. First, the average annual net profit should be a minimum of twice the maximum drawdown over a period of at least 5 years. Second, ideally there should be no losing years.
Trade Profile
There are two aspects important here. First, the percent of profitable trades should be in the 40-60% range and the ratio of average win to average loss should be in the 1.3 - 2.0 range. Second, the average trade net profit (total net profits divided by the total number of all trades) should be at a minimum 3 times greater than real world per trade slippage and commission assumptions. Beware of systems claiming to deliver greater than 60% winners. Such systems usually exhibit a very poor average win to average loss ratio where a few losing trades can easily wipe out profits from several winning trades.
You Now Have the Tools
By following the guidelines in this report, I believe you are now in a position to distinguish the difference between good systems that have the potential to deliver superior returns and the rest. Remember, a trading system must meet all of the criteria elements outlined here to qualify as a system that you would consider trading for your own account.
The Next Move Is Yours
Trading systems are not for everyone. In particular, futures trading involves significant risk and should only be considered by those who have determined that futures trading is appropriate for them with regard to their financial situation. However, the appropriate use of a good automated trading system could mean the difference between mediocre and superior returns. I believe you now have the tools necessary to properly evaluate a trading system.
Martin Chandra is a full-time investor. He has been researching investment strategies and make his own living. For more information please go to http://martinchandra.com/peter-bain/
Additional Info On Forex Today
gft forex
Speculators are active in the FX markets, as they are attracted to the opportunities that volatile and changing market conditions create. A multitude of economic forces impact the world�s currencies. Some of the forces at work include interest rate differentials, domestic money supply growth, comparative rates of inflation, central bank intervention and political stability. In times of global uncertainty, some currencies may benefit from perceived �flight-to-safety� status. Or, if one country�s economic outlook is perceived as strong by market forces, its currency may be firmer than another country�s currency, where economic or political conditions are viewed with caution.
forex trading software
When it comes to the Forex market, you should know that what you assume to be true may not be true at all. You may think that you can use the Forex market to protect your investments. You have learned from reading this however that the Forex may not protect your investments, and one should be diligent in watching their investments in order to avoid anything catastrophic. You may also think that you can get rich quickly using the Forex market. The truth is that short term trading, which is notorious for turning profits quickly, is not for the beginner. Those who have traded for years may try short term investing, but it is very risky indeed. Lastly, you may think that leverage will help you "play with the big boys" and still stay safe. This can be a horrible assumption and many people will over leverage themselves if they are not careful. So, do research, be smart, and think before you act when dealing with the Forex.
forex chart
Literally, there are numerous online and offline resources for Forex training. Some of most common and highly effective ways to get forex trading knowledge are using live seminars, online webinars, trading books, subscription services, etc. depending upon the individual taste, preference, availability and budget constraints there is something to suit almost everyone. For example, learning forex analysis through trading book will enable experienced traders and beginners to trade with confidence. You can run your own successful forex trading business part time or full time from home and generate cash flow in rising or falling markets. You can earn a great income online by training yourself with trading books.
More info on Forex trading
forex rates
In any Forex training program, it is recommended that don't invest in any market, the stock market, futures, mutual funds, bonds or the foreign currency exchange, until you first invest in yourself. There are many types of Forex training and education for trading techniques and methodologies. These are almost for anyone to everyone (for the novices and experienced traders), helping them obtain the skills, knowledge and abilities to successfully trade in the foreign currency echange.
More info on Forex software
Some Forex Software Stories
Both banks hold rates
Fri, 09 Nov 2007 08:35:18 GMT
Easy Forex
Understanding Forex
Forex
Choosing a Trading System That Actually Works
I believe a good trading system should be considered for inclusion in one's portfolio in order to potentially enjoy superior returns. Finding a good trading system, however, can be a very difficult process. I believe a good trading system should be considered for inclusion in one's portfolio in order to potentially enjoy superior returns. Finding a good trading system, however, can be a very difficult process. So it becomes necessary to have a way of distinguishing good systems from the rest. Fortunately, there is a way to do this by using a demanding set of criteria that I believe must be met in order for you to consider using the system.
Futures trading is not appropriate for everyone. There is a substantial risk of loss associated with trading futures. Losses can and will occur. No system or methodology has ever been developed that can guarantee profits or ensure freedom from losses. No representation or implication is being made that using the Instant Profits methodology or system will generate profits or ensure freedom from losses.
The purpose of this report is to define the criteria that I believe will enable you to identify the good systems out there from all the rest.
Listed below are the key elements of the criteria set you should use in evaluating a trading system. A good trading system will meet the requirements of each key element whereas many systems will only meet some requirements. For example, a trading system may be advertised as having 80% winning trades which sounds pretty good. However, that same system's losing trades may be 5 times higher than the average winning trade, making the system a net loser.
Mechanical System
The trading system must be 100% mechanical without any human input or overrides. It must also not be tweaked or adjusted as time goes on to fit current data. Also, the system algorithms or rules must not be curve-fitting or tailored to short term, non-repetitive patterns of past data that eliminate otherwise losing trades. A good way to screen for curve-fitting is to look for consistently good results over a minimum of 5 years of past data that meet all of the other criteria outlined in this report as well.
Liquid Markets
The trading system should be aimed at liquid markets where sufficient daily volume exists to easily and consistently execute orders as intended by the system with a minimum of slippage. For example, the S&P 500 Index Futures Market is highly liquid, whereas the Orange Juice Futures Market is far less liquid.
Market Direction Independence
A good trading system will not be dependent on a bull market for its success. It should have the potential to generate successful trading performance in all market conditions; bull, bear, and sideways trading range.
Hypothetical Performance Results
The primary way of evaluating a trading system is based on its historical back tested performance ("hypothetical performance"). But the performance record must include real world trading commission and slippage assumptions. Commission and slippage can cause an otherwise winning performance to actually be a net loser. Beware of any futures trading system performance data where commission and slippage assumptions are not included or are understated.
Maximum Drawdown
An inherent characteristic of investing in general and in trading systems in particular is the maximum drawdown in account value from the most recent peak. This is a very important factor in assessing the risk associated with any system. There are two aspects to consider; the dollar amount of the drawdown as a percentage of the total account value (should not exceed the average annual return) and the duration of the drawdown until a new peak level in equity is realized (should not exceed 6 months). Some trading systems hype great profits over the past several years, but don't disclose drawdowns that sometimes exceed the initial capital invested and last for a year or more. Before selecting a trading system, you must be able to quantify the drawdown risk and find it suitable, both financially and emotionally.
Beginning Account Size
The maximum past drawdown (over a minimum five year period) plus the margin required for one contract is the absolute minimum account size required to trade a system. And to be conservative, it is prudent to add a buffer since the maximum drawdown for any trading system is always in the future.
Annual Returns
Annual returns are measured as net profit after commissions and slippage, divided by the beginning account size which gives you annual percent return on beginning account size. Two things are important here. First, the average annual net profit should be a minimum of twice the maximum drawdown over a period of at least 5 years. Second, ideally there should be no losing years.
Trade Profile
There are two aspects important here. First, the percent of profitable trades should be in the 40-60% range and the ratio of average win to average loss should be in the 1.3 - 2.0 range. Second, the average trade net profit (total net profits divided by the total number of all trades) should be at a minimum 3 times greater than real world per trade slippage and commission assumptions. Beware of systems claiming to deliver greater than 60% winners. Such systems usually exhibit a very poor average win to average loss ratio where a few losing trades can easily wipe out profits from several winning trades.
You Now Have the Tools
By following the guidelines in this report, I believe you are now in a position to distinguish the difference between good systems that have the potential to deliver superior returns and the rest. Remember, a trading system must meet all of the criteria elements outlined here to qualify as a system that you would consider trading for your own account.
The Next Move Is Yours
Trading systems are not for everyone. In particular, futures trading involves significant risk and should only be considered by those who have determined that futures trading is appropriate for them with regard to their financial situation. However, the appropriate use of a good automated trading system could mean the difference between mediocre and superior returns. I believe you now have the tools necessary to properly evaluate a trading system.
Martin Chandra is a full-time investor. He has been researching investment strategies and make his own living. For more information please go to http://martinchandra.com/peter-bain/
Additional Info On Forex Today
gft forex
Speculators are active in the FX markets, as they are attracted to the opportunities that volatile and changing market conditions create. A multitude of economic forces impact the world�s currencies. Some of the forces at work include interest rate differentials, domestic money supply growth, comparative rates of inflation, central bank intervention and political stability. In times of global uncertainty, some currencies may benefit from perceived �flight-to-safety� status. Or, if one country�s economic outlook is perceived as strong by market forces, its currency may be firmer than another country�s currency, where economic or political conditions are viewed with caution.
forex trading software
When it comes to the Forex market, you should know that what you assume to be true may not be true at all. You may think that you can use the Forex market to protect your investments. You have learned from reading this however that the Forex may not protect your investments, and one should be diligent in watching their investments in order to avoid anything catastrophic. You may also think that you can get rich quickly using the Forex market. The truth is that short term trading, which is notorious for turning profits quickly, is not for the beginner. Those who have traded for years may try short term investing, but it is very risky indeed. Lastly, you may think that leverage will help you "play with the big boys" and still stay safe. This can be a horrible assumption and many people will over leverage themselves if they are not careful. So, do research, be smart, and think before you act when dealing with the Forex.
forex chart
Literally, there are numerous online and offline resources for Forex training. Some of most common and highly effective ways to get forex trading knowledge are using live seminars, online webinars, trading books, subscription services, etc. depending upon the individual taste, preference, availability and budget constraints there is something to suit almost everyone. For example, learning forex analysis through trading book will enable experienced traders and beginners to trade with confidence. You can run your own successful forex trading business part time or full time from home and generate cash flow in rising or falling markets. You can earn a great income online by training yourself with trading books.
More info on Forex trading
forex rates
In any Forex training program, it is recommended that don't invest in any market, the stock market, futures, mutual funds, bonds or the foreign currency exchange, until you first invest in yourself. There are many types of Forex training and education for trading techniques and methodologies. These are almost for anyone to everyone (for the novices and experienced traders), helping them obtain the skills, knowledge and abilities to successfully trade in the foreign currency echange.
More info on Forex software
Some Forex Software Stories
Both banks hold rates
Fri, 09 Nov 2007 08:35:18 GMT
Understanding Forex
Forex
Labels: Forex made Easy
posted by Big Time Trader | 8:12 AM
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