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Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Today's Forex And Forex Trading News

Forex Trading Software Article Of The Month



Thoughts On Forex

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Online forex trading training is convenient because you can choose which topics to study or pay particular attention to. You can decide which time of day or night to study or participate in online discussion of the curriculum.
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Currency prices are affected by a variety of economic and political conditions. The beginner trading forex currency should take note to probably the most important influences to the currency prices are interest rates, international trade, inflation, and political stability. Governments participate in the foreign exchange market to influence the value of their currencies. The governments flood the market with their domestic currency in an attempt to lower the currency price or conversely, buying in order to raise the price. This is generally known as central bank intervention. The beginner trading forex currency should be aware that large market orders can cause high volatility in currency prices. Due to the size and volume of the forex market its impossible for any entity to drive the market for any length of time.

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Forex money management is where most traders go wrong in almost all cases leaving only a few as the winner at the end of the day. Money management and discipline of mind is what makes or brakes a trader at the end of the day, not the elementary entry and exit method.

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I always try to pyramid while position trading medium-term once I am convinced of a new medium-term trend emerging. Like in USD/JPY position trading 135-132 as an initial position, adding in 132 and 129 areas. Same for AUD/USD and EUR/USD with similar strategies. But sitting on positions and watching the counter-rallies costing truck load of money is not easy job to do and causes lots of pain all the time. Most traders even among experienced ones cannot bear that pain and give up too early. But there is no other way to make a big money and we have to bite the bullet and "sit and accumulate" as long as the medium-term trend is intact. That is why I always believe psychological aspects of trading is far more important than anything else in successful trading. A mind game like those bluffing game of poker.

Forex Trading Software Stories

European Morning Update 19th March 2008

Wed, 19 Mar 2008 00:36:04 -0500
Dollar back under pressure in Asia

News from Australia:

Australia Prior Current
January Westpac Leading Index - 0.2% - 0.1%
March DEWR Skilled Vacancies +4.7% +4.1%
Q4 Dwelling Starts +1.3% +2.6%
February Preliminary BoP Imports (MoM) +6.0% - 1.3%

Numbers from Australia this morning were soft but not excessively and basically reflect the gentle slowdown in the economy. The leading index implied growth moderating to around 3.5%-3.8% so no one is going to get too bearish at this stage.

Dwelling Starts were still firm in Q4 but it is likely that the two interest rate hikes this year will take the steam off the housing market. Jobs ads were soft again and tend to suggest that the record low unemployment may not last for too many months if the trend continues.


Releases from Japan:

Japan Forecast Actual
January All Industry Activity Index (MoM) +0.1% +0.0%

Industrial activity was a little softer in January but that wasn’t far from forecasts and again does reflect the mild downturn that has already been seen, so no great surprises.

However, the Reuter’s Tankan report was not quite so rosy with corporate sentiment deteriorating due to the continuing rise in raw material prices. The Manufacturer’s MI slipped by 1 point to +8 which is less than half the level seen 3 month’s ago at +21.

The scene is set for the BOJ’s Tankan report on April 1st.


The following economic releases are due today:

January
Italian Industrial Orders (MoM) +1.3%
Italian Industrial Orders (YoY) +5.0%
Italian Industrial Sales (MoM) +1.1%
Italian Industrial Sales (YoY) +4.5%
Euro-zone Trade Balance EUR - 7.0bn
Euro-zone Construction Output (MoM)
Euro-zone Construction Output (YoY)

February
U.K. Claimant Count Rate +2.5%
U.K. Jobless Claims Change - 5.0K
U.K. ILO Unemployment Rate 5.2%

March
U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications
U.K. CBI Industrial Trends


Since this is the last update until Thursday the 26th I shall do my best to describe the general outlook for the coming week. I do have to add a caveat in that quite frankly I think it could prove to be quite choppy and therefore support & resistance levels could change substantially each day.

For a start Friday is a bank holiday and Monday a partial one. That should keep the market subdued and this will mean the recovery seen overnight is unlikely to last too long. It is very unlikely that without any further positive input that the market will change its mind and become Dollar bullish. More likely the daggers will be out before long to know it back.

Today I do see potential for further gains but not excessive. The areas I feel will cap are at around 101.23 Dollar-Yen, 1.5531 Euro, 1.9944-77 Pound and 1.0130-60 Swissie.

From these areas I suspect a pullback. Whether the market will push it substantially lower is uncertain given the long weekend but the downward pressure should be renewed by Monday and more likely Tuesday next week.

However, at this stage I think the Dollar has done enough to break the current downward path and I’m not really in favor of seeing new lows. Thus any approach to this week’s lows should see momentum falter and cause a pullback into range. I suspect when I get back on Thursday that I’ll see rates around current levels and possibly a touch lower.

The only other comment I’ll make is a long shot but best kept in the back of minds. The sharp losses amid almost hysteria do fit the description of a spike bottom. If we are seeing a spike bottom then the implication is for a headlong rush higher. However, I’d only follow that if there is some surprising/amazing announcement to trigger it. Otherwise the bearish sentiment is just too much for the dollar right now.


Note important support and resistance areas:

USDJPY EURUSD USDCHF GBPUSD
Res: 100.95-23 1.5791-31 1.0132-60 2.0192-18
Res: 100.10-43 1.5714-57 1.0018-52 2.0123-46

Spt: 98.32-63 1.5612-50 0.9900-34 2.0042-72
Spt: 97.51-81 1.5495-31 0.9780-00 1.9941-77

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